Holiday Retail 2009: Reinventing the Game
The analysts are all talking about “pent-up demand” while the reporters want to know if it is “the end of Black Friday”. Clearly some retailers are re-inventing their Holiday strategies, while others stuck in the habits of a challenging year, are still advertising their “Take an extra 40% off” sales. Holiday 2009 marks a real change in how retailers will market to consumers in the fourth quarter.
A few retailers have sensed what the analysts with their theory of “pent-up demand” were blind to. Today’s consumers are different. They have had a tough year and now evaluate what is important very differently. This has fundamentally changed shopping behaviors and with unemployment at over 10% it’s less likely they will revert to old ways. Those “demands” have evaporated and been replaced with more basic needs such as value for price, whether it be a diamond ring or a turkey with all the trimmings.
Sears kicked the season off early. That salvo helped lift their advertising above the relentless noise of “Save 40%” which results in good media value and probably sales. The added press buzz didn’t hurt this storied American Brand either. The bigger plum of repeat traffic in the store after an initial visit is something to watch for throughout the holidays.
Kmart was out early with an Old School Layaway program but the messaging made what’s old new again. Ads focused on consumers getting the “hot products” they want at Kmart on layaway and being ahead of the crowd. A trifecta of reasons for consumers to get to their local Kmart NOW!
Walmart started a book war last month, taking aim at one competitor and letting rip. Amazon matched their efforts, but that may not have been the point. What if this was just a test run to gauge consumer reaction to declaring war on one competitor? Don’t be surprised if they take this tactic to other categories where they have a dominant competitor that they can drive to take steep price reductions. In a year without a hit product, consumer electronics would seem ripe for such an attack.
Then there is the dissolution of Black Friday. JCPenney, Walmart and others have made it clear there is no point in waiting until the last Friday in November. Great prices are available now and presumably will be later. Since consumers knew this already, there is nothing to lose here, and it may take the analysts’ focus off the results of one day’s worth of receipts. It’s likely online’s Black Monday will die the same death.
The message here: if you are a retailer who is still running 40% off messages, even if it’s with a holiday jingle, you aren’t in the game. Hear that Target?
